Royal LePage Forecasts Healthy Price Appreciation for Luxury Real Estate in the Greater Toronto Area, Greater Montreal Area and Ottawa


  • Greater Toronto Area’s luxury condo market sees highest price appreciation across Canada’s five largest cities over twelve-month period

  • Greater Montreal Area’s luxury property market forecast to see the strongest appreciation rate looking across Canada’s five largest cities

  • The median price of a luxury house in Greater Vancouver is forecast to decrease 7.1 per cent, or approximately $410,000

  • Luxury house prices in Calgary stabilize and see modest lift while luxury condo prices remain soft over twelve-month period

  • Ottawa’s luxury property market posts healthy price appreciation over twelve-month period


Toronto, February 21, 2019 – The median price of a luxury property in the Greater Toronto Area, Greater Montreal Area and Ottawa saw healthy price appreciation over twelve months ending January 31, 2019 compared to the previous twelve month period.[1] Luxury condominiums in the Greater Toronto Area posted the highest year-over-year price appreciation, rising 10.2 per cent to $2,268,571, followed by luxury condominiums in the Greater Montreal Area, which rose 8.4 per cent year-over-year to $1,295,401.

“For a second year in a row, luxury condos in Toronto and Montreal have made significant gains in price appreciation and we expect this trend to continue through 2019, however, at a more modest pace in Toronto,” said Kevin Somers, Chief Operating Officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Limited.

Across Canada’s five largest cities, Greater Vancouver was the only city to post a decline in median luxury home prices. The number of luxury houses trading hands declined over the past two years, a trend that initially began with the introduction of measures to cool the city’s real estate market in 2016. Luxury home values have dipped but remain remarkably steady as many Vancouverites refuse to sell at what they perceive as a discount. Exasperating soft demand, Chinese nationals, an important luxury buyer demographic, have seen restrictions placed on their ability to transfer wealth to Canada.

While sales remained low throughout 2018 in Greater Vancouver, luxury house sales in the Greater Toronto Area decreased a more modest 3.6 per cent year-over-year from June 1, 2018 through January 31, 2019. However, as a result of low sales activity during the 2018 spring market, luxury house sales in Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area declined 50.5 per cent and 40.0 per cent, respectively, during the twelve month period ending January 31, 2019. During the same period, luxury condominium sales in Greater Vancouver decreased 32.2 per cent, while luxury condominiums in the Greater Toronto Area decreased 3.4 per cent.

“Compared to last year, we are expecting an increase in luxury sales activity in both Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area,” said Somers. “Price reductions and increased selection in Greater Vancouver are expected to stimulate the luxury property market while an expected return to more normal activity in the Greater Toronto Area will be a marked improvement over last year’s spring market.”

Ottawa

Ottawa’s luxury home market forecast to continue to appreciate after a year of healthy price gains and sales

Ottawa’s luxury home market posted a second year of healthy price appreciation during the twelve months ending January 31, 2019. The median price of a luxury house in Ottawa increased 5.0 per cent year-over-year to $1,811,716 compared to the same period the previous year. Meanwhile, the median price of a luxury condominium increased 3.8 per cent year-over-year to $1,005,549 during the same period.

“While the typical luxury buyer in Ottawa is usually a local buyer who will live in the property, there is a strong sentiment among buyers that Ottawa’s luxury home market is a sound financial investment,” said Charles Sezlik, sales representative, Royal LePage Team Realty. “The local economy is doing well, spurred by our booming technology sector, which is creating both wealth and jobs in the region. In addition to a growing buyer demographic, Ottawa’s luxury home market is benefitting from healthy consumer confidence.”

Sezlik added that compared to luxury home prices in other Canadian major real estate markets, Ottawa still has considerable room to grow.

“The lower end of the luxury market is very competitive. A good listing in a good location will not stay on the market long,” said Sezlik. “Luxury properties priced over 2 million had a slower start at the beginning of 2018 but demand quickened in the second half of the year. We are seeing this demand continue through the start of 2019 and expect another year of healthy sales and price appreciation.”

During the twelve months ending January 31, 2019, Ottawa’s luxury house sales were flat year-over-year, however, luxury house sales more than doubled compared to two years prior, rising from 26 sales to 60 sales.

When looking ahead, the median price of a luxury house in Ottawa is forecast to increase 4.2 per cent year-over-year to $1,887,624, while the median price of a luxury condominium is forecast to increase 3.1 per cent to $1,036,747 in the next twelve months.

Luxury real estate segment price appreciation in Canada’s five largest cities (.pdf)

 About the Royal LePage Carriage Trade Luxury Properties Market Release

The Royal LePage Carriage Trade Luxury Properties Luxury Market Release provides information on the two most common types of luxury housing in Canada using lower thresholds of three times the median value of each segment relative to the overall property type’s median home value in that city. Real estate values use company data in addition to data and analytics from its sister company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Commentary on real estate markets are provided by Royal LePage residential luxury real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge. Sales data is compiled by Royal LePage through the Toronto Real Estate Board, Greater Montreal Real Estate Board, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, Ottawa Real Estate Board and Calgary Real Estate Board.

Lower thresholds used for detached luxury homes: Greater Toronto Area ($3,092,476), Greater Montreal Area ($1,235,266), Greater Vancouver ($4,705,050), Calgary ($1,669,041), and Ottawa ($1,420,331). Lower thresholds used for luxury condominiums: Greater Toronto Area ($1,543,909), Greater Montreal Area ($1,002,778), Greater Vancouver ($1,979,978), Calgary ($875,285), and Ottawa ($890,253).

About Royal LePage

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of more than 18,000 real estate professionals in more than 600 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, dedicated to supporting women’s and children’s shelters and educational programs aimed at ending domestic violence. Royal LePage is a Brookfield Real Estate Services company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE.

For more information visit: royallepage.ca.